Sunday, August 22, 2010

Not Flash: the lowdown on the 3 close seats, lindsay, dennison and corangamite at 0:14

the long and the short:
its not looking good.
I've looked at the 3  close seats n the AEC site

wilkie(if he takes dennison off the ALP) and bandt will go with the ALP..  katter/oakshott and other other independant tend  conservative and will likely vote en bloc as a group of 3... these guys wil hold the balance power.. they take the coalition to 76.
in close seats postals will mostly go to lib.. prepoll to ALP

ALP is a head in corangamite by a few hundred votes.. GRN prefs are needed here to hold itd
with all booths in 2PP is ALP 50.03 to 49.96 bugger make that 49.97.. if this seat is lost Sarah henderson will have won govt for LIB.

Lindsay has all booths in and ALP is ahead 50.25 to 49.75
they have a massive 8.00% informal vote for which yuo can thank that utter dickhead Mark Latham. frankly right now I wouldnt piss on him if he was on fire as i'd be the one holding the matchbox.
6,403 informal votes in lindsay
despite all this I think it'll be an ALP hold.. just

in Brisbane the LNP incumbent leads on 2PP 50.18 to 49.82..
I think this'll be an LNP hold

so it comes down to Corangamite and Lindsay.
Can the sea changers hold out in corangamite?
Will the lathamite informals have cost the ALP Lindsay?

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